DRUG COST FORECAST TO GROW AT 4.66 PER CENT CAGR

The total private drug plan (PDP) drug cost is expected to grow at a compound annual rate (CAGR) of 4.66 per cent from 2017 to 2019, the forecast impacted by utilization (3.8 per cent), recent new drug entries (2.02 per cent), and specialty drugs (2.14 per cent), says Brad Millson, senior principal, health access and outcomes, IQVIA. Speaking at Canadian Group Insurance Brokers’ ‘Private Plan Drug Cost Drivers & Forecasting’ event, a joint venture with the Benefits Breakfast Club, he said the new pCPA generic pricing implemented in April will also likely reduce costs in private plans by 3.5 per cent in the first 12 months. This forecast follows IQVIA’s 2016 to 2018 forecast which projected CAGR of drug costs at 4.7 per cent. Millson says 65 per cent of PDP drug costs were for drugs for chronic diseases during that time, while patients in the 45- to 64-year-old demographic contributed the most to growth (at 3.5 per cent). Non-specialty drugs less than $10,000 were 72 per cent of the PDP in 2018 and claimant growth was the main driver of specialty drug growth. IQVIA’s ‘Private Market Forecast 2017-2019’ will be released four to six weeks.